The Casemiro Effect.

For years, Manchester United have been searching for a defensive midfielder to tie everything together. Just 18 months ago Manchester United were lining up with the likes of Scott Mctominay and Nemanja Matic in a double pivot, and now they are lining up with 5 time Champions league winner Casemiro at the base of midfield.

The impact Casemiro has had since joining Manchester United has been so significant, that we have seen Manchester United go on to win the Carabao Cup (their first trophy in 6 years), and also be in a tightly contested race for top four (all be it not the aim for the season). With Manchester United making the acquisition of Casemiro in the summer, many would say Manchester United are a striker signing away from being title challengers under Ten Hagg.

Lets take a deep dive into how Casemiro has effected the way Manchester United play, and the qualities he possesses as a holding midfielder.

Real Madrid Casemiro:

(Figure 1). (Image taken from (https://tacticaltrends.substack.com/p/player-analysis-casemiro-at-manchester)

As you can see in the image above, Casemiro was used as the primary DM for Real Madrid. He was there to protect the back four, and shuttle the ball between the defensive and attacking lines. This often looked like a 4-1-4-1 formation.

Casemiro's job was to break up play, protect the back four and start counter attacks after winning the ball. By having Casemiro in this position it allowed the more creative midfielders such as Modric and Kroos to go further forward and use their passing ability to affect the game.

(Figure 2). (Image from LaLiga Socials)

In the 2019/20 season, Casemiro had the most ball recoveries in the league with 294 recoveries. In this season Real Madrid won La Liga with 87 points, only losing 3 games all season. Casemiro started 53/53 games in this season for Real Madrid in all competitions and was pivotal to Real Madrid's success when going on to win the title. Casemiro made 96 tackles in the league and recorded 67 blocks which really highlights his defensive importance when compared to his midfield counterparts, Modric recording 37 tackles and 10 blocks and Toni Kroos recording 56 tackles and 27 blocks.

Whilst 2019/20 was the season that Casemiro made his mark as a world class level defensive midfielder. He enjoyed even more impressive numbers before the 2019/20 season. In 2017/18 Casemiro recorded a whopping 109 tackles and 56 blocks. These stats have been consistent over Casemiro's career as he averaged 90.8 tackles from 2017/18 up to 2021/22, as well as averaging 55.2 blocks between 2017/18 and 2021/22.

These statistics taken from Fbref show the defensive actions Casemiro produces on a regular basis, and exactly why he is trusted as a lone defensive midfielder, to protect the defensive line and break up play for his team.

Casemiro Role:

(Figure 3). (Image from Fbref)

The first thing to note is that when playing as the lone defensive midfielder, certain attributes are needed to be successful. As you can see from Casemiro's statistics taken from Fbref comparing him against other midfielders in world football, Casemiro is in the top 95+ percentile for tackles, blocks, clearances and aerials won. These are all extremely important statistics for a defensive midfielder as it shows how often you are winning the ball back for your team, and performing defensive actions that benefit the team. Interceptions is the other important statistic for a defensive midfielder and Casemiro still ranks in the top 89% of midfielders for this category with 1.66 per 90.

(Figure 4).

As previously mentioned when talking about Casemiro's role for Real Madrid, the idea of playing with a lone defensive midfielder who can be trusted to protect the back line and break up play, is that it allows the other two midfielders playing next to him (typically in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 including the attacking midfielder) to have freedom and join the attack to create overloads in the attacking phase and create chances for the team.

As you can see in the image above, Casemiro (circled in black) is holding the space behind the other two central midfielders (circled in red) in case the ball breaks past them. By doing this Casemiro is ready to win the ball back in a dangerous position to restart the attack and keep Manchester United on the front foot.

Whilst his starting position may seem high up in this image, it is due to Casemiro's intelligence and reading of the game that he is able to do this. As he knows the ball is in the top left corner of the pitch, he can see the spaces covered in front of him and he can see the 9 opposition players that are inside their own defensive third. This means Casemiro can squeeze into the space and set a trap high up the pitch to keep the opposition pinned in their own half, keeping the pressure on them.

(Figure 5a). (Image from SofaScore)

It is more common to see Casemiro as one of the deepest players, as can be seen above in his average position map against Barcelona (at home). This is where Casemiro typically tends to operate, allowing the fullbacks to push on, along with the other central midfielders.

As you can see by the heatmap signatures in the image above, Casemiro is everywhere. Winning the ball back when Manchester United lose possession, to protect the defence but also to re start the attacks and build momentum.

(Figure 6). (Image taken from https://www.youtube.com/@quattrick4801)

Here is another example of Casemiro being in position to stop the opposition from counter attacking, and instead intercept the ball and keep United on the front foot. His positioning behind the other two central midfielders who are pressing allows him to sweep in and intercept the ball as he can see that the only passing option available for the opposition player is inwards. This means Casemiro can jump the route and get into the passing lane to win the ball back for Manchester United. This resulted in a counter attack, which resulted in a goal for Manchester United.

European pedigree and leadership:

Casemiro is a FIVE time winner of the Champions league in his time at Real Madrid. He is well known as an experienced footballer, and a leader on and off the pitch. Something Manchester United have lacked in recent years is natural leaders and players with european pedigree. By adding Casemiro, not only are United adding a world class defensive midfielder, but also a natural leader who knows what its like to play in the toughest fixtures.

(Figure 7).

In the Champions league final 2021/22 season, Real Madrid beat Liverpool 1-0 to win Casemiro's fifth Champions league title at Madrid. Casemiro played a huge part in this win, protecting the defence and not allowing Liverpool to break and use their pace. Casemiro won 8 ground duels, 5/5 aerial duels, made 3 clearances, 1 block, 3 interceptions and 4 tackles.

Casemiro was instrumental in this final, allowing Real Madrid to soak up pressure at times and then break using their counter attacking prowess with elite attackers such as Karim Benzema and Vini Junior.

(Figure 8). (Image from SofaScore)

As you can see from the image above, Casemiro's heatmap was heavily in his own half just in front of the back 4. A lot of his defensive actions were completed in this area of the pitch, breaking down Liverpool attacks. The defensive positioning and intelligence of Casemiro made it hard for Liverpool to create high x/g chances in central areas forcing a lot of width and crosses into the box, which Madrid were prepared to deal with.

By acquiring a player with european pedigree, who can perform on the biggest stages, it will instil belief into the Manchester United team that they can beat anyone on any given occasion. This has been seen already this season as Manchester United dispatched of Barcelona in the knockout stages of the Europa league, as well as beating Real Betis comfortably. They will now face Sevilla in the quarter finals of the competition and United are heavy favourites to go on and win the entire competition.

Casemiro's effect to how Manchester United play:

In 2021 Manchester United were playing with a midfield pivot of Scott Mctominay and Nemanja Matic. Both defensive minded midfielders, which instantly took away from the attack and build up play of Manchester United as these two midfielders were deployed for their defensive capabilities.

Mctominay recorded 69 tackles, 51 blocks and 47 interceptions in the 2021/22 season. Matic recorded 34 tackles, 21 blocks and 35 interceptions. Whilst some of these numbers may represent a decent level of defensive output, this was done between two midfielders in a double pivot. Comparatively Casemiro has already in the 2022/23 season managed 96 tackles, 70 blocks and 54 interceptions. This is nearly the combined defensive output of the two midfielders playing in a double pivot previously (Mctominay and Matic), but for one player in Casemiro.

With the defensive numbers posted by Scott Mctominay, you could begin to question whether Mctominay could play as the lone defensive midfielder, allowing the other two more attacking central midfielders (without Matic and including Van de Beek for example) to play further forwards. However another important statistic to look at for the lone defensive midfield role, is what that player can do with the ball once regaining possession for their team.

Mctominay in the 2021/22 season managed 563 successful short range passes, 513 successful mid ranged passes and 136 successful long ranged passes. In comparison Casemiro in the 2022/23 season so far has managed 638 successful short ranged passes, 555 successful mid ranged passes but significantly already 173 successful long range passes. These passing statistics show Casemiro's ability to pick a long range pass, meaning that when possession is regained by Casemiro he has the ability to start a counter attack using this passing range that Mctominay lacks.

Starting the counter attack is one of the main roles of the lone defensive midfielder as they are usually the player to regain possession the most in positions to start a counter attack for their team.

(Figure 9). (Image taken from https://www.empirecityacademy.com/blog/attacking-in-the-final-third)

In the image above, you can see Casemiro has won the ball back on the halfway line as the opposition are trying to break. Winning this tackle, in this area of the pitch will allow Manchester United to counter attack as the Fulham players are moving up the pitch before Casemiro has won the ball.

Casemiro looks to win the ball back in these advantageous positions when possible as it can turn defensive actions, into attacking actions and catch the opposition off guard. Many teams adopt the counter attacking approach as it is a proven entity within the modern game. By winning the ball back in advantageous areas of the pitch, it gives the attacking players the chance to exploit spaces left by the opposition defenders who are out of position.

(Figure 10).

Here is a simple image that shows the way Manchester United look to play using Casemiro as the lone defensive midfielder. Ten Hagg likes Bruno and Fred to push on when in possession of the ball, and then counter press when they lose the ball using their high energy and high octane naturism. Casemiro sweeps the spaces behind these presses and is ready to make his defensive move should that be an interception in the passing lane, or a tackle if the press is evaded.

By having a world class level defensive midfielder in Casemiro, it also allows the fullbacks to bomb forwards and create 2v1 situations on the flanks with the wingers. Manchester United have used this to great affect this season since the arrival of Casemiro. By pushing the fullbacks forwards in possession which can give the wingers more space out wide, as they have the options to play quick 1-2s or use the extra man as a dummy, allowing the winger to go 1v1 with their opposition fullback.

(Figure 11).

This leaves wingers such as Rashford in isolated positions to play 1v1 versus the opposition fullback. Once Rashford is in these dangerous areas on the pitch, it allows him to be direct and create chances, which he has done so well this season. Rashford has scored 15 goals and recorded 4 assists in the Premier league this season in 29 matches. He has also got 6 goals and 1 assist in the Europa league in 8 matches played. This season has been Rashford's second best output in a season and the season is yet to conclude. Only 2019/20 compares for Rashford as he finished the Premier league campaign with 17 goals and 7 assists (it is to be noted that Rashford was on penalties in this season and is not this season).

Many attribute the sparkling return to form of Marcus Rashford down to the system that Ten Hagg is playing, which is built around Casemiro at the heart of the team. By having a player with the defensive brilliance of Casemiro, it allows the forwards to flourish as they have a holding midfielder ready to stop the counter attack if they lose the ball, and instead regain possession quickly ready to go again. This instils belief and confidence in the forwards, which we are seeing this season with the likes of Marcus Rashford and Antony.

(Figure 5b.) (Image from SofaScore)

When you compare the average positions of Manchester United in games with Casemiro (Figure 5a) and without Casemiro (Figure 5b) you can see how more players are forced deeper. In figure 5b, 7 players are inside the Manchester United half for their average positions. However in figure 5a, when Casemiro is playing Only 4 players are inside the Manchester United half for average positions, and you can see when comparing the 2 images that Manchester United are generally a few yards higher all over the pitch.

This really shows the impact of a player like Casemiro and how important he has been for Manchester United this season. Stats show according to Manchester Evening News that, Manchester United have a 66% win rate with Casemiro in the starting XI, and only concede 1.1 goals per match on average when he starts. However without Casemiro, United have only a 54.5% win rate, and concede 1.7 goals per match on average.

All the stats clearly point to the benefits Casemiro has bought to Manchester United since joining in the summer, and shows why he is so important to the way Ten Hagg wants his United team to play.

Conclusion:

To draw this article to and end, Casemiro has completely changed the way Manchester United play since joining the club. By having an elite level defensive midfielder, it can unlock other players and areas of the pitch which can therefore elevate every area of the teams performance.

Without Casemiro, as shown when comparisons were made to seasons of old, and occasions this season when Casemiro has been absent, Manchester United are a significantly worse team without him.